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January 2010

Risk Assessment: Too much emphasis on PROCESS hampers rescue efforts in Haiti

From the night that CNN showed Dr. Sanjay Gupta staying up all night to attend to patients in a field hospital, because the UN thought it was unsafe for their doctors and medical staff, you can’t help but feel like the security threat there has been used to avoid taking any chances — while the Haitian people are having to absorb all the risk!

Even Anderson Cooper said, from his position in the ground, that the security fears were overblown and other doctors have corroborated this! So why is the UN using security as a cover….

The UN is an organization that often favors PROCESS over ACTION. I can understand that they are used to having convoys attacked in dangerous areas like Cambodia and Ethiopia — but this is Haiti…. we know Haiti… no rocket launchers in Haiti — no political goals on display in Haiti. Just poor, starving, sick people with no homes, no resources, no medical facilities, no food, and no water.

As a risk person, I just wonder if they actually did a quick 1 hour risk assessment on this disaster which would have pointed out that the risk of slow, un-action is much worse in this case – than the risk of a security incident.



Exploring Ideas to Prevent Disasters like the Haiti Earthquake Disaster

Exploring Ideas to Prevent Disasters like the Haiti Earthquake Disaster

CNN seems like it’s grabbed the lead on Haiti Earthquake coverage. They crossed that line last night when Sanjay Gupta, the CNN doctor, spent all night in a field hospital caring for patients that the UN left alone in a tent.

So there are thousands of images of the aftermath of the earth. Thousands of sad stories of loss and tragedy and all of it magnified by the grinding poverty of the country and it’s lack of government control and working infrastructure (even before the earthquake).

Obviously – it is impossible to prevent an earthquake, so there are three areas that could be explored to make earthquake disasters less horrific.

1. Advance notice of seismic activity in an area. Hurricane can be seen forming and building and can be graded, and prep work can began days before the disaster strikes
(yes – like Katrina). But perhaps it is also possible to have sensors that mark seismic activity. At least enough to get a glimmer of warning. My research says that there has been a project since 2007 to install sensors in the ocean floor to track tremors. After the Indonesian tsunami, the urgency to install these sensors increased dramatically. And because Haiti was on a fault line — I can’t help but wonder if someone somewhere in a research lab, may have noticed a few unusual tremors because this actually occurred.

2. Creating a System of International Building Codes. Obviously the death, injuries and damage occur from falling buildings and building materials (in the Haitian earthquake – cinder blocks). The UN could create standards for buildings with different standards based on the type of earthquake zone. For example, there could be a simple 1-5 scale and places that often have earthquakes (California, Japan, Pakistan) would have stricter standards than a place with almost no earthquakes, i.e. Florida and India.

While every building in a quake-prone country might not comply with the guidelines, the big multi-nationals would – the hotel chains, the government buildings (perhaps), and the better residential areas — and who lives in the better residential areas? The doctors, the medical professionals, the government officers, exactly the group of people you need in an emergency.

3. Creating Standards for Better Emergency Planning and Disaster Recovery.
The big increase in business continuity plans and disaster recovery plans (see
www.recoveryplanner.com) is amazingly limited to INFORMATION recovery and working to limit or prevent interruptions in information systems. The same kind of planning does not exist for disasters in most underdeveloped countries. Again, this is an area where the U.S. agency, FEMA could play a leading role; or the UN should make it a priority to do some kind of minimal planning standards for these devastating emergencies with massive injuries and loss of life.

The National Fire Protection Associations (www.nfpa.org) has published an Emergency Preparedness standard called NFPA 1600 – the Standard on Disaster/Emergency
Management and Business Continuity Programs and it’s a good example of the basics of Emergency Preparedness.

Individual countries would do their citizens a service by acquainting them with how to prepare families to survive in emergencies, whether they are triggered by power outages, severe cold, hurricanes or earthquakes!

Emergency Preparedness’ critical role in emergencies is something you can watch unfolding this week, as the relief efforts get stalled by lack of clear roads, problems at the airports, time involves in sea travel, etc. There has to be a better way – one that can be refined and used in future disasters.

In case you think you will never see an earthquake – here are the statistics on how many earthquakes occur in the world each year. These are averages but you can see that there is, on average, one giant earthquake, and seventeen large earthquakes, 134 strong earthquakes and many more light and moderate earthquakes.

TYPE STRENGTH AVERAGE PER YEAR
Great 8 or higher 11
Major 7–7.9 172
Strong 6–6.9 1342
Moderate 5–5.9 1,3192
Light 4–4.9 c. 13,000

The Boy Scouts were right when they adopted “BE PREPARED” as their motto.

These are three areas:

1. Better Ways to Predict Earthquakes (by even a day),
2. Minimum Building Codes based on local geography, and
3. Uniform Emergency Preparedness standards around the world.

These could be explored to prevent or at least mitigate the devastation we have seen in Haiti this week.



Do Terrorists have Lower IQ’s?

Is it nature or nurture? Do you think there’s a correlation between the intelligence of a person and their choice of terrorism as a vocation?

I’m not talking here about the brilliant, twisted strategists who create the idea of the revolution. I’m talking about the mules – the new recruits who can’t wait to blow themselves up for the cause. Or shoot and kill innocent people – like the Holocaust Museum incident in 2009.

Take “The Underpants Bomber”, for example. If he REALLY wanted to blow up the plane, why didn’t he go into the bathroom and light himself up there? Why go back to his seat where it is always crowded anyway? Only one conclusion can be reached – he is stupid! He suffers from a serious flaw in his reasoning ability.

One of the most interesting films I have seen recently was done by Fareed Zakaria and which aired on HBO. It is called, “Terror in Mumbai” and Fareed narrates it.
Take the forty-five minutes needed to watch it because it is incredible and goes right to my point about terrorists being dumb.

After the Mumbai bombing attacks started, the government was able to hook up to the actual cell phones being used by the terrorists to communicate with the Big Brain Terror Leader ( also called his Controller, or Handler??) back in Pakistan. So the movie is actually the real conversations between the operatives and their Controller.

At one point, the Controller tells them to set the hotel mattresses on fire. They try but can’t get a fire going, so the Controller screams into the phone – go back and light them again.

The on-the-ground terrorists seem to have no idea of how to kill anyone, and are almost goaded into doing it by the Controller on the phone who has to explain to them what to do next, and who you hear him screaming into the phone, “Shoot him in the head”.

They seem almost like puppets and, as you watch the movie, you realize that these guys couldn’t terrorize anyone on their own. They are uneducated, unsophisticated young men who probably would have gone sightseeing if the Controller hadn’t kept a tight rein on them.

Some people think there are more of these unthinking people around than the thinking kind. I hope that isn’t true, and it really speaks to the power of education and sophistication as the best weapon we have against this sort of mindless terrorism




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